The Swing Trend System

Scoreboard

Numbers in red indicate bearish scores, with 10 being more bearish than 2. Numbers in black indicate bullish scores, with 10 being more bullish than 2.

Here's a line segment to help you understand the scores.


Every evening (by 6 PM, EST), the symbols are updated with their new score for that day. New stocks on the list have their first score highlighted in green. Stocks that have hit their stop have their final score highlighted in blue.






Market Context

11/05/09. As you can see from the Dow and S&P Scores, the market continues to move up. As the market continue to turn up this week, we began exiting our short trades and took on long trades.

11/04/09. After a nice morning rally, the market indices ended flat following the Fed's meeting. Some of our shorts stopped out during that rally.

11/03/09. The strength indicators continue to move up on the Dow and the S&P500, even though the markets ended slightly down today. This is causing some of our shorts to stop out according to our rules, but all are with profits.

11/02/09. Market received some good economic news. Scores for both Dow and S&P500 are now set at zero. This could be the bottom of the short term S-Curve. Therefore, caution is in order on all short trades.

10/30/09. After gaining 200 points on Thursday, the Dow gave back 250 points today. A strong bear trend continues.


Completed Trades

The following trades have been completed using The Swing Trend System. "Profit Per Day Percentage" (PPDP)is calculated by taking the total profit of the trade divided by the number of days the trade was held. Exiting earlier can sometimes produce higher percentages.

NVLS. 11.05.09. Hit 2nd previous candle high and stopped out. [Total profit of 5.8% in 13 days = .45% PPDP.]

CYT. 11.04.09. Hit 2nd previous candle high and stopped out. [Total profit of 8.4% in 12 days = .7 % PPDP.]

PGH. 11.04.09. Hit 2nd previous candle high and stopped out. [Total profit = 5.9% in 12 days = .5% PPDP.]

AOS. 11.03.09. Hit 2nd previous candle high and stopped out. [Total profit of 7.3% in 11 days = .66% PPDP.]

TPX. 11.03.09. Hit 2nd previous candle high and stopped out. [Total profit of 2.6% in 7 days = .38% PPDP.]

MET. 11.03.09. This stock made over 3% profit in one day, and therefore we exit with a quick profit. [Total profit of 5.8% in 1 day = 5.8% PPDP.]

AEL. 11.02.09. American Equity, at 6.35, gave an automatic profit of 18%. According to the rule of dimishing returns, I decided to exit this trade. [Total profit of 18% in 10 days = 1.8% PPDP.]

AMD. 11.02.09. Advanced Micro. Exited today due to rule of diminishing returns. [Total profit of 21% in 10 days = 2.1% % PPDP.]

USB. 11.02.09. USBancorp. Stopped out at break even today after touching top of 2nd day inside daily candle top. [Total profit = 0% in 5 days = 1% PPDP.]

BOA. 10.30.09. Bank of America produced a technical sell signal on 10/29/09, after hitting the 2-day previous high. An exit earlier in the day's rally would have created better results. Since stop was not hit until late in the day, holding over until the following day would be a trader's judgement call. [Total profit of 10% in 9 days = 1.1% PPDP.]

EL. 10.30.09. Estee Lauder produced an automatic sell signal after two days of trading. (a) Stock achieved over 3% per day profits. (b) Price hit 18-SMA average while achieving a high score. (c) EL reports earnings on Friday, 10/30/09. Always sell prior to earnings to avoid risk. [Total profit of 6.7% in 2 days = 3.35% PPDP.]


Charts I'm Watching

Posted chart on 11-8-09 for possible movement above 18 SMA: